DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying we should or shouldn't do any of the things I mention. I'm just explaining what is and isn't possible under the cap to hopefully facilitate some good discussions. All numbers come from Over the Cap. Having signed Jarvis Jenkins and Steve McLendon, we are currently 3.7M over the cap. By the start of the draft, we need to be 4-5M under the cap to sign the rookies and have a couple million left over for midseason signings. As I've explained in other posts, we have three options: 1. Don't make a significant investment in the QB position. 2. Trade Mo. 3. Restructure contracts. Note that cutting Breno and Folk and getting Brick to take a pay cut will be necessary in addition to doing one of the above three things. Neither (1) nor (2) are appealing, so I'm going to explain what will happen if we go with (3). You guys can then decide for yourselves whether we should do (1) or (2). In addition, if we can't come to terms with Mo for a long term deal, it's probably best just to trade him. I'd take 15.7M in cap space plus a high second rounder over one more year of Mo and a compensatory third rounder. Also, if we can't get Fitz to agree to a below market contract, it's probably best to look elsewhere at QB as a big part of Fitz's value is that we can get decent production from him at a below market rate. So let's say we come to terms with Fitz on a 3Y/30M contract with the first 15M guaranteed. And we sign Mo long term for about 15M per, i.e. Malik Jackson money. While Mo is a better player than Jackson, Mo is not on the open market. If he plays under the tag and gets hurt again, he's screwed and he knows it, so he might still accept a little less that what he could theoretically command in free agency. At this point, we still need an ILB and a K before the draft. So we re-sign Erin Henderson or sign some other guy for 3-4M, i.e. Demario Davis money. And we bring back Randy Bullock for <1M. We can get a punter in the draft. We also cut Breno and Folk. We'll draft Breno's replacement, and Bullock will replace Folk. We are now 10M over the cap, and we need to get 5M under. In other words, we must free almost 15M of space. We start with Brick. We either get him to take a pay cut, lowering his base salary from 9M to 5M, or we cut him and sign someone else. Unfortunately, Russell Okung is gone, but Jake Long is still free and Ryan Clady might be cut. Now we restructure the contracts of Brandon Marshall, Nick Mangold, and Eric Decker (believe me, restructuring Revis is not a good idea). Doing the maximum amounts for Marshall and Mangold and a little less than the max for Decker, we find ourselves 4.9M under the cap, where we need to be. Of course, restructuring comes with a price. The good news is that Marshall and Mangold's contracts end after 2017, so aside from a slight extra hit in 2018 with Decker, these restructures don't hurt us past 2017. In 2017, we will be 14M under the cap. Fortunately, since Fitz and Mo will be locked up, the only major impending free agent will be Richardson. We could decline his option and collect the compensatory pick (Mo and Williams will be our DL core), or we could spend 8-9M on the option. Doing so would prevent us from signing anyone else unless we make cuts, but we won't have to worry about losing key contributors. In the end, (3) doesn't seem like a bad choice. Restructuring hurt us with Tannenbaum, but these restructures don't seem like they would cripple us in the future. But (3) is contingent on the Fitz, Mo, and Brick situations. Macc will need all three to work out one way or another to make it work.
Great post. I think it really drives home our situation. in alot of threads i see stuff like "just restrcture or cut breno/brick or tell mangold to take a paycut and we are good". this puts things in perspective. To me #1 is a no brainer. I'm not sure there is a worse move in any of the major sports then overpaying for mediocrity at QB in the NFL. especially old mediocrity with a weak arm(those guys usually fall off quicker). If we can get fitz to agree at 7-7.5 million id be ok with that. although id stand strong at 5-6 million. otherwise id be fine with another option. and id still consider doing #2 in addition to number 1 if i can get good returns on the deal. Id love to keep mo. but we have ALOT of major long term issues on this team. the 4 most important things in the NFL are: QB, LT, LCB, Edge rusher. right now we dont have a single one of those things longterm. and QB/LT is VERY short lived. if we can turn mo into any combination of those things, i can see the value in that #3 to me is too general reall with details on which guys. but id be really hesitant to restructure a ton of guys to be able to overpay a mediocure QB
It is hard to say because i dont know what some of the other candidates would need to sign. I'd be ok with signign RG3, unless he wanted 7-8 million at which point it puts him in the same boat as fitz for me. id be happy with glennon. but if its going to cost me more then a 4th, then im passing on that for sure. Assuming the prior 2 guys are too rich for my blood, id turn my attention to Brian Hoyer. I think you can get him for similar to what it took to get fitz, and he is owed just 4.8 million. last year he threw for 289 yards a game, 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. if you look at hoyer last year with the texans and fitz the prior year with the texans its somewhat similar. it is basically the exact same situation as fitz. Fitz had a solid yet shortened year with the texans, houston brought in a free agent starter, fitz became tradeable and went to the jets in a contract year.
Hoyer Last year: 91.4 Rating, 60.7 completion %, 289 yards/Game, 7.2 Y/A, 19 touchdowns 7 picks Fitz with Texans: 95.3 Rating, 63.4 Completion%, 225 yards/Game, 8.0 Y/A, 18 touchdowns, 6 picks Hoyer is basically fitz from last year. if we can get him for what it took when we traded for fitz, and have to pay him 1/3 to 1/2 of what fitz would get, to me i do that. after giving Brock a huge contract, im not sure houston can justify giving Hoyer 5 million to be a backup. getting a conditional 4th-7th based on performance/playing time for hoyer seems like a solid move for them. and after how fitz performed i think they would bank on hoyer meeting the conditions on the pick if it was performance based.
Macc is keeping his cards close to his chest right now. My guess is he'll only move when it financially makes sense. There are too many potential holes on the roster though. Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk
Good point. Hoyer had no one to work with in Houston outside of Hopkins and still put up those numbers. Makes you wonder what he would do with the core of guys we have at that price he's making. Could be better than Fitzpatrick. Completion percentage is solid and he had a good season outside of the playoff game. He was awful in that game but then again so was Fitz in week 17 vs Buffalo which basically was a playoff game.
Interesting. It would be funny if we fleeced Houston twice in two years. The question is whether Hoyer is a good fit for Gailey's system. What's his gamestyle like?
I have an idea....why don't we just trade the entire d line to open up space then be forced to replace them every draft for the next 4 years .Then when the new players we draft want to be paid we can trade them again "rinse wash repeat".But atleast we would open up money to resign a 13 year veteran journeymen QB who's never appeared in a playoff game.Let's create holes all over the roster that will take years to replace,Trade everyone with talent under age 30 then we will have enough money to waste on some other shit
Look at our drafts the last six years. It's horrible, terrible, atrocious This stings because Mo is one the few guys that we've picked that are any good. We're not in such good shape. We need more young players or we're fucked. If we had more good players Mo wouldn't standout like he is now. It's the reason why our ST's aren't any good too. Our depth sucks. We gotta do something
Maccagnan is already doing something, drafting better. Last year's draft wasn't bad, it's gonna take him some time to clean up the mess previous regimes left.
Agreed. I should've said the years prior to Mac. I'm talking pre-Mac. Look at those drafts '10-'14...bad. We have hardly anything to show for it. That's not Mac's fault. There's nothing there for him to add to. Not a great situation for him. Don't make it harder on him by repeating the mistakes that have been made before him. Let him fail on his own, his picks his system. Not trying to patch this mess that they made.
Got to wonder how our scouting department was so friggin bad. I would like to see a graph of worst draft pick roster retention over the last 15 years. I'll bet we are at or near the top. Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk
I'm all in on cutting Brick, even before Breno. Breno stinks at 4.5M, but Brick stinks at 14.1M. Brick was getting manhandled a lot last year--sure he answers the bell and plays every week, but he is a shell of his former self and you should PAY a player for present not past production.
I agree that Brick isn't worth anything near what he's being paid. But without Brick, we have nobody who can play left tackle. If we cut him, we need to replace him because left tackle isn't a position a coach can scheme around (like TE for instance). Going into the season with a rookie left tackle and the rest of the line we have is asking for a QB injury.
Dude, you're being ridiculous. You need to take a break from all things Jets. Go for a long walk, take up a hobby for a while then come back in a few weeks or month. I think you'll have a fresh, more positive perspective on things. We have a lot of reasons to be optimistic. If you can't see them, then you definitely need to take a break.
Connor Cook on a 2nd round contract would be a pretty cheap way to save at the QB position. 3 year starter in a pro style system he'll be ready to play right away.
