Thus far, our three opponents are converting approx 50% on 3rd Downs. Aside from penalties and fatigue, is there a reason or are there reasons, for example, playcalling, that we're allowing such a high conversion rate? Opponents 3rd Down Efficiency Ravens: 11/19 (57%) Patriots: 5/11 (45%) Dolphins: 7/15 (46%) Are Rex/Pettine's playcalls too predictable on 3rd Down? Is this the result of a lack of a dominant pass-rusher? Does Revis factor in? For the Jets D to reach elite status, this number must decrease; but I'm trying to identify how. What's the issue? What are the solutions?
The rush and the miscommunications in the secondary are the two culprits. The front 7 isn't getting there and the secondary isn't on the same page. It shouldn't be like this, but it is. Good thing the kid is allowed to make plays, or else the offense wouldn't be picking up the defense.
It's probably because our secondary hasnt been too hot in pass coverage. They pick on wilson or sometimes cro on 3rd and longs, and usually wilson/cro have trouble making the play I trust rex to make great adjustments tho like he did vs. NE and stopped blitzing
We need a consistent pass rusher, so we don't have to blitz as much We have to rely too much on the blitz on passing down and other teams are expecting it. It becomes easier for them to counter Maybe we have to do a better job of disguising the blitzes It also doesn't help when one of your DBs can't cover any WR you put him up against
That's a good question, if you think about it we added three pieces (Cromartie, Wilson, Pool) those three guys are suppose to have a huge impact on the secondary, it must be extremely difficult for Leonhard to constantly get these guys in the secondary on the same page as well as the front 7. Doesn't help that Revis and Pace, two key components on our defense, aren't out there to contribute as well due to injury. Hopefully when everyone is healthy that will lead to the defense executing plays and us playing great D on a consistent basis.
as soon as it gets to 3rd down for our opponent I scream out loud, automatic 1st down. the first 3 games we just can't get off the field on 3rd down.
1st in the league. I think either high 20s or mid 30s. Now its the mid 40s. I know the Jets are missing 3 starters and won't have one back all season, but there was an article from one of the stat analyzing sites that predicted this defense was not going to be as good as last years because it never happens. The 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Bucs - they both had lower numbers the next year because of personnel changes and the fact that offenses study the shit out of your scheme. It just interesting that they called it. But the 3rd down issue needs to be fixed before a team capitalizes on this and beats the Jets by 14 pts.
Yeah, it seems that after the Secondary allows a conversion or a big pass play, there's always hands in the air with the players looking at each other like, "wtf..." I think this is the biggest issue and in the first three games, it has reared its head. Because we have to blitz, it appears that the opposing Offenses are prepared and ahead of the D on 3rd Down. The return of Pace and Revis will definitely help. Having said that, we'll still need to blitz, and I'm hoping that Rex and Pettine start creating different looks that will confuse opponents, despite them knowing that the blitz is coming.
We were #1 last year with a 32% opposing 3rd down conversion rate. Right now we're 31st with a 51% opposing 3rd down conversion rate ahead of only Buffalo at 52%. Interestingly, NE is just ahead of us at 50%. It's early yet, but that's pretty alarming.
When were blitzing Cro and Wilson refuse to be physical at the line. This is allowing receivers to get free releases into their routes and the qb is just throwing it up
I agree with the first part but the last half is unlikely. It's Rex's defense. If he has better pass rushers he's just going to keep sending the blitz and expect more.
Yeah, there's a difference between Defensive Rank dropping from the previous Season and having the 31st Ranked 3rd Down Defense. At this point, I think teams have already capitalized on it, and it's a major reason why we're not 3-0 with 3 blowouts. Of course, the Offense failed miserably against the Ravens, but the D allowed 57% and several of those were 3rd&Long -- initially, we chalked that up to the Offense's ineptitude which gassed the Defense, but now there's a larger sample size and a trend is developing.
Hey, I called it too (and got criticized for it here), and didn't need to use any justifications of personnel changes and smarter offenses, since it actually has very little to do with that. It's regression to the mean - in the last 25 seasons, only twice has the team that finished #1 in defense had a better defensive record the following year (there's nothing special about "super defenses" like the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Bucs in that regard). You can't be #1 in any category without getting some luck, and luck doesn't carry over to the next year. All of that doesn't change that the 3rd down defense has been awful, and could (and hopefully will) get better, but even if it does, the team is (and always was) very unlikely to have the best defense in the league.
Does anyone have stats on how frequently we run the overload blitz on 3rd downs? I think teams have definitely keyed in on that and have figured it out to some extent. Of course, it is much easier to figure out without a dominant guy on the line, a dominant guy rushing off the edge, and a Revis in the secondary. I like what they did against NE when they faked that blitz a few times; that seemed to mess with Brady more than the actual blitzes.
This is what I found most noticeable in last night's game against the Dolphins. The overload blitz appeared to be painfully obvious which may explain why they weren't affected by it, picking it up and able to beat it. Again, until the heart of the problem is determined and resolved, I think Rex/Pettine will have to be more creative to make the blitzes - especially on 3rd Down - much more difficult to digest.
