First -and this is where teams that have had recent high draft picks get into trouble- one of the more ignored facets of this CBA mess is that (reference here: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2332924) the not likely to be earned bonuses apply immediately. High draft picks (particularly QBs, though this applies to everyone) tend to get an enormous quantity of bonuses written into their contracts (Pro Bowl appearences, yardage triggers, completion percentage, % of offensive/defensive plays on the field for the year, special teams bonuses, # of carries, etc). Most of these are determined to be likely-to-be-earned (LTBE) or not-likely-to-be-earned (NLTBE) based on the previous year's performance (not sure what the rookie determinations are, but that's moot at this point). Big Ben's cap number has increased a great deal due to bonuses of this type in the past year (i.e. I think the Super Bowl appearance counted for .5M). This is going to wreak havoc on the draft this year, and really hamstring a few teams (read: Jets, probably Lions, and a few others) that have had a large number of high draft picks recently, and have used the performance-based bonuses as a way to dangle carrots to get their picks to sign for lesser up-front bonus money. I don't know if Clayton has taken this stuff into account yet or not. Possibly... But if not, look for some new figures by tomorrow when the NFL demands that teams get under the cap. Regarding everyone else, this year's cap is making some teams really sweat bullets. The ESPN crew has been taking notes that indicate you'll see a few pretty good football players hit the market (Sean Taylor? Think about it - if you're the Redskins and you need to make cuts, do you cut the guy who takes up space and isn't as good, or do you cut the guy who might be in jail anyway?); not just the guys who are up there in years and are trying to land a contract based on reputation and experience (Ty Law, etc.) The Jets and Redskins (not to mention Raiders) could be in dire straits here. With the way their cap is playing out, heck, the Jets might just have to toss Abraham in at RG as well as DE. I believe Len Pasquarelli mentioned something to the effect of the Redskins starting 20 rookies next year.... For what it's worth, I think this is going to be what makes both the players and owners cave a little in negotiations. What's going to happen is you'll see guys refuse to play for a smaller contract than what they think their market value is, so there will be a bunch of players out there and there will be no teams with any cap space to sign them. The players will want to play, the owners will want to sign them, and there are going to be a lot of long faces until a new CBA is signed. (note: at this point, it would have to be a new CBA, not an extension, because after 4PM today, I believe the no-cap 2007 year goes into effect, which nobody on at least half of the bargaining table wants to see. So if they want to avoid an uncapped year, that would require voiding the old CBA and writing up a new one). Oh, and one last item: Look for about half of the 1st round of the draft to hold out this year. I'm willing to bet a lot of agents have made promises to players that they can't keep in an effort to win the right to represent the player. Agents try for 10-20% increases for 1st round contracts (and tell the players that), and I just don't see that happening this year. Due to the limit on salary increases by year and the constraint on proration of signing bonuses to fewer years, the rookie cap simply will not allow for that kind of increase (for instance, a team with a 5M rookie cap that wants to sign their #5 overall pick to a 24M, 6 year deal and has 7 picks (estimate 2nd rounder at 1M cap number, the rest total to 1M leaving 3M cap space for the top pick) Alright, I'm sick of writing things. I hope you found this useful.
I found this useful...hopefully this is all just a ploy tactic and both parties will agree on something during the last hour....I think the biggest thing is just the percentage number everything else will fall into place....
I totally agree..I think the whole NFL was expecting a Cap around the 105-110 ranger for 2006. Now if the CBA goes through it very well happen. Teams like Washington is definitely screwed bad. The Jets are not that far off we restucture CP's contract and maybe 1 or 2 more or drop 2 more players we will right at that golden mark of 94.5 as of now for 2006. I see teams like the Minnesota, Arizona and the Browns with so much playing room right now and they could be grabbing a bunch of FA taking less money just to have a job next year. ....Tomorrow will definitely be a day of reckoning....
MN and the like are in an outstanding position right now. But the Jets have to love the prospect of a capless season. It's nice to be the #1 media market in the country and have the ability to throw unlimited $$$$ at people to make a run.
yeah so we can have another New York Knicks team.. What makes the NFL great is having a fair playing field..Not like baseball where the Yankees pay to have 9 all stars every year..This would kill small market football...The Jets wil be paying the like of TY Law there exuberant contracts and signing Pennington to an extension instead of a pay cut..ticket prices would go through the roof and beer insted of 8 dollars it will be 10 bucks(if we behave ouselves) ..I think no Cap will kill football..
Jets are in deep shit. But you know what im sure mangini knew about this b4 he became a coach and pitched a gameplan to the FO, something tells me he has something stirring.
Great post. This is just sick. It's a freaking masacre. Now I will admit I am one of those against the salary cap, but if that's what it takes to stop the bleeding, then I have no problem accepting it. From the way things look right now, we are looking at quite a different face on the NFL next year. It's starting to look like no team will have the same core as they did just a month ago come July.
if the CBA is agreed on for next year and beyond. i personally dont mind the shakeup this year in FA.
That's what I was thinking...now I'm not so sure because of yesterday's cuts. How pissed would you be if you were the Dolphins and released Sam Madison and the next thing you know you had the cap space to keep him because a new CBA deal had been reached...today is going to be a crazy day one way or another
I too think there will be a shitload of holdouts this year. Especially at the top level where I can see Reggie wanting crazy QB money.
The LTBE incentives hit the cap as of 3/3/06. The NLTBE only hit once the incentive is achieved during the season, which could lead teams to cut guys mid-season, or bench a guy as he approaches an incentive.
