To agree with @JackBower, SOME extent matters when you don't have 30 plus full GAMES as an example of what the kid, or any kid for that matter, does on the field. 40 times, shuttle, long jump, vertical jump...all those "intangibles" means dick when a guy spent his entire college career jacking people up from the best teams in the game down to the worst teams. Bain was smacking offensive players around all day long and twice on Saturday his entire college career. Which, I might add, was more than TWICE as many games as guys like Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson strapped it up. Sorry, the two QB's were a forefront of my mind.
Of course, because if there’s a team that needs a situational pass rusher at #2 overall it’s surely the Jets.
Of course it is more nuanced, but 32 5/8 arm length is considered below threshold for an OT. Typically you want closer to 34 with 33 as absolute minimum. And Mooge specifically mentioned thresholds knocking down players' grade SOME. And yes, they have statistical models based on vast amounts of data that suggest there is a threshold or cut off point that reduces probability of success. Again Mooge referenced it, including arm length specifically. I just think it would be dumb to ignore it. Does not mean you don't draft the guy or even knock him down a lot (anomalies do happen and of course there is nuance), but yes, if the arm length comes below the absolute statistical minimal threshold, even by 1/2 inch, you need to take SOME points off the grade. Just like NE should have done for Campbell. But hey I am not complaining since Membou slid to us (it's actually positive, not negative, Jack lol), we just need to apply the concept for this draft's prospects. And no, that does not mean we cannot draft Bain at 2.
Yeah I do not think there will be an issue with measurables there! But I really want to see Bailey and Bain combine results.
Seriously? If our GM is worried about less than 2 INCHES of wingspan in a damn O-Tackle then we have a hell of a lot bigger problems on our hands. You seriously cannot make this bullshit up! I thought you were going to come at me with the difference between 32 and 5/8" arms and 40" arms. Let me say this for the cheap seats, less than TWO inches of wingspan, on an OT, means absolute dick. I'm just going to lay it out there. It means N-O-T-H-I-N-G. If my General Manager, of a professional football team, is grading an OT on less than 2" of arm length we have a far far bigger problem than culture. Holy shit.
I don't. I couldn't give 2 shits what their combine results are. Tell me what their on field production results are. Now THAT is useful stuff. What I want to know is this: Can I sit Player-A on our DL and KNOW that the kid is going to come in and PRODUCE at or near a Pro-Bowl level, year in and year out. End of story. In MY WORLD, I go look at FOOTBALL GAMES to find that information. Did this kid lay a beating on all the kids who are going to get drafted right along with him, the couple years before him and the kids coming up just behind him? If the answer to that question is "Yes" then I'm drafting his ass at #2. THAT is why I want to see my draftable players spend 3 years-ish in college, at the very least. THAT is why I like to see the players I draft go to the all star games, to see them CONTINUE to dominate the players that will be drafted along with him. Not some fool, sitting in an executive chair, telling me that Player-A is "less than" Player-B because of less than 2" of wingspan, even though Player-A has beaten the shit out of everything thrown his way for multiple years in a row. Unreal...
Of course production is most important, but then why do you think they even have combine!? If people should not give two shits, then why have it? And why it is such a pivotal event for the teams? Because it matters. That is fact. How much it matters? Not sure, but enough for it to be a huge event. Your own GM literally just talked about a specific thresholds and knocking down grade. Not just any GM, JETS GM, of our own team. Listen, you want to ignore it and argue the facts, let's just agree to disagree.
The combine exists for a lot of reasons similar to how any industry has any big, annual events. It exists for GM's to get together and talk about the latest league happenings and discuss trades, etc. It's a yearly rite of passage on the NFL off season calendar so that means it helps keep the NFL hype machine relevant when they're not playing the real games. All the ad revenue and sponsorships for the event so there's definitely vendors and companies who are tied to it financially and promote hard to keep It going strong. However, the combine, not unlike the Sr Bowl, and any other postseason or off season event, should not be taken as gospel at any level. These are the trimmings on top of the steak or that extra icing on the birthday cake. This is not the meat and potatoes of roster construction unless you're using the combine primarily to find some diamond in the rough prospect that your scouting team has been tracking over the year(s). The NFL and all these people tied to these events may not say it publicly, but it''s a boondoggle of the highest order. If Mougey and the Jets scouting dept NEED the combine to finalize their evaluation on a given prospect, especially ones of note, then we're all in big trouble. I still think of that lineman jumping out of a pool in a video and some people fawning over it when it meant absolute dick when it came to his ability to get nasty in the trenches. It's window dressing.
Campbell seems to have a bigger problem than his wingspan, one which I believe is significantly more crucial at this stage of his career and there is no metric at the combine as to how straight his head sits on his shoulders. NFL Network radio guys today were discussing his refusal to speak to the press last night following game. That's a bad look for anybody at any time in the season and especially bad last night.
No one claimed it's meat and potatoes. But trimmings on the stake is not nothing. If statistical models show there is a massive drop off when you have below 33 inch arm length for OT, and this is a threshold, it's not going to make or break your evaluation, but it can have SOME impact. Maybe if you have two great OT prospects, you should factor that in and take Membou at your spot and not Campbell. I am glad NE didn't though. Like Mooge said, don't ignore the production, but there is also SOME value to the measurements. Combine does not just exist for revenue generation, and again it is not just me saying it, Mooge said there is value. He is the Jets GM, and yeah, he specifically mentioned arm length listing thresholds. Not really sure what the argument is about. How much we factor the measurements in is debatable and I am sure we will have that debate once they come out for top prospects. But it is not debatable that we have to factor them in.
Sure we can factor the measurement in but when you're as dynamic and unstoppable a prospect as Bain has shown to be, you better not use arm length as one of your leading factors or your GM tenure won't last very long. See Dwight Freeney for reference on short arm concerns. The verdict is still out on Mougey. I have to see more out of him from a personnel/drafting standpoint and see if he has an eye for talent. As I said in another thread, this is his time. Things literally couldn't be setup for him any better than the 2026 off season from a draft capital and FA cap space standpoint. I want to see and fully expect a largely revamped roster.
And I won't use it as a leading factor. But I see Bain and Bailey as fairy close, I like both of them. I am leaning Bailey now, but a combine could slightly tilt this in either direction. I understand there are outliers who beat the massive odds. But they are still outliers.
Freeney was undersized and a pure speed rusher though. His game was predicated on tackles not getting their hands on him at all so his arm length was less relevant. I would still take Bain though. His motor and get off gives him a really high floor. He just probably doesn’t have the top end upside as a couple other prospects.
What we do know about Moug is that he’s definitely a big school guy based on last year’s draft. I’ve always been a fan of that strategy because you can really get a good read on a prospect based on the competition he’s facing.
Putting aside the arm length thing, I still like Reese over Bain because his per-attempt pass rushing numbers are significantly better than Bain's and he's younger to boot. Regarding the arm length - I'm a firm believer that measurables and the combine are generally overrated. Having said that, if Bain's arms are as short as people say they are then he's going to be bottom ~10% in arm length for NFL edge rushers. There's essentially no precedent for someone with arms as short as his being successful rushing the passer in the pros. I don't like the idea of betting on something that has never happened at #2 overall.
For reference Campbell's arms are in 7th percentile for OT. Btw, looks like Daniel Jeremiah and McShea released new mocks. Both have Reese at #2. DJ has Bailey at 6, Bain at 9. Todd has Bailey 4, Bain 7. Still quite early in the process though.
