http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds They also peg us at an 18.2% chance of winning the division. Not too bad for a team that was supposed to go 3-13.
I honestly think its higher, the major competition for the wildcard is: Chargers (4-3) Ravens (3-4) Dolphins (3-3) The Chargers still have four games against the Chiefs and Broncos which will be brutal. We get to play the Ravens and Dolphins so its really going to come down to how we perform in those games. The wildcard will be won with 9 wins. All bias outside, the Jets to me look like the favorites to get the 6th seed followed by the Dolphins. The Ravens have an absolutely brutal schedule and the Chargers have yet to play the divisional games. The Dolphins look like they have a tougher schedule to. All in all, I would take the position we are in over the rest of the competition. We arent staring death in the face like the Chargers and Ravens are. We also arent a sinking ship like the Dolphins have been over the last 3 games. The phins have the Patriots this week, it will be a season defining game for them.
http://www.chargers.com/schedule/ http://www.baltimoreravens.com/gameday/season-schedule.html If we split the next two games and get to 5-4, NO DOUBT in my mind we get in. Just comparing our schedule to what the Chargers and Ravens have is nuts.
Yes, I understand the graph. I'm just saying the Jets have the 6th highest percentage. Which would equal out to the 6th spot. Even though the Chargers have a higher 6th percentage, that's only because they have no chance at winning that division.
All we need to do is have a better record than the Chargers right now which doesn't seem to hard. I expect the Texans, Ravens to bounce back. Phins were fools gold.
Oh my God, I just saw one of the special bowls. The Ryan Bowl. Could you imagine? Saints/Jets, Rex/Rob.
So I like Football Outsiders and all and I respect the hell out of their methodology but have they missed the fact that Nick Folk is 15 for 15 on FG's and the Jets have won at least two late games they shouldn't have (Bucs and Falcons) and the Jets have a -11 Give/Take number at this point? The Jets are a couple of long kicks from 2-5 and counting the win against the Pats could just as easily be 1-6 right now as 4-3. This is not the look of a team with a 38% shot at the playoffs, not by a long shot. BTW, interesting unrelated fact: the Giants have a -14 Give/Take number right now. The next worst number in the NFC is 4 teams tied at -2. Yeesh.
Pretend we beat the Bengals Sunday and are sitting at 5-3...what % for the playoffs would you put us at in that event?
only 4 teams are guaranteed to make the playoffs. if you want to be one of them, you have to win your division. jets are not doing that this year. with denver and kc doing so well, that leaves just one spot . after watching us play pittsburgh and the titans, i do not expect this is our year to get that last spot. reality is a bitch:shit:
I agree with you about some lucky wins but there were also a bunch of different ways we could have beaten NE the first time. Looking at the standings and the schedule I would say the percentages look pretty reasonable as standings dictate a lot more than how you actually got there. If we come out with a win against Cincy I think we have to be better than 50% to get in. At that point the Jets would be at least a full game up for the 6th seed and Geno will have played another encouraging game in most winning scenarios so we'd be in the driver's seat barring major injuries or a rookie QB collapse. If we lose the next 2 the chances have to be < 10% so obviously getting at least one win in the next 2 weeks will make or break the season. Whether the team can put together a real run at the playoffs or not this year, it will be quite interesting to see how Geno and some of these unheralded young players that have been stepping up respond to the pressure and set the tone for the coming years. I didn't expect much coming into this season but it would probably be disappointing if we miss the wild card by more than a game at this point especially considering the weak cast of opponents vying for the 6th slot.
can we please string together 2 good games before we start talking about playoff scenarios in week goddamn 8?
It has been a tale of two Geno's and basically 2 Jets teams up to this point which isn't very surprising. However we are in a good position for the 6th spot based on the records and the Patriots are vulnerable this year which could lead to a collapse. An unlikely possibility, but not statistically insignificant in this type of analysis. The point I'm making is that if we come up with a big win this Sunday the Jets are in full control of their destiny with a weakening schedule for the remainder and a rookie QB that shows promise coming off of 2 straight big wins against tough opponents. That's where the biggest chunk of the 38% is deriving from. I don't expect this team to win 3 straight road games and then the Super Bowl but wouldn't be at all shocked to see them get to the divisional round or AFCCG from where we're sitting now. I might be even less shocked to see us get beat up by the Bengals and lose the game and the chances for the season but that's why the statistical analysis is yielding 38% and not 62% for our playoff chances. It really all comes down to this next game.
