Rams +14.5 Broncos -3.5 Cardinals +6 Still on the fence about Bolts -6. May get in on that by the end of the week
too soon for me -- but i like denver and arizona - Indy being a dog at home to Baltimore looks tempting and I think the Texans bounce back big against the dolphins -- picks by Saturday morning edit Houston paper shows Indy as a dog -- I thought that was messed up -- nevermind
Yeah, was gonna say. Indy home dog is as +EV as it gets. Doesn't happen often, but when it does you bet the farm(last year against NE, they lost but still covered). To be honest I'm staying away from that game because it has trap written all over it. Colts generally get a ton of action when they have to cover less than a TD at home. Baltimore's D is #1 in both YPC and YPA. We know the Colts can't run or stop the run. I really like Baltimore and the points here but I'm not getting burned by another Peyton Manning miracle again. Fuck that (And fuck Sage Rosenshit :smile
You're definitely with the sharp money on the -4.5. Jesus. I started tracking at NYG -6.5 and it has since moved to -9 like you said with nearly 95% of the public on NYG. Not much faith in Cleveland according to oddsmakers and that -4.5 is very very very solid. Nice bet. I doubt it stops at -9.. it's only Wednesday. Wouldn't be susprised to see -9.5 or even -10 at some books come Sunday.
Update: For anyone still interested in NYG, as of 10/8 2:47 EST TheGreek book still has NYG -7.5 -110 which isn't bad at all.
Chicago -3 against ATL. ATL's home wins came against KC and DET. To say that ATL dominates at home is true but misleading. Now they face an insane defense and a the Bears are averaging 27 pts a game.
Not my lock but mos def in my top 3 this week -- leaning towards Philly against the niners -4.5 also really like the Gmen -- will post tomorrow
It's a value play. I had set this line at Bolts -7 before I even saw the Vegas line. I'm not really worried about LT tbh, he's been doing this every week. And if he can't go, Darren Sproles is more than capable to tear the Patriots a new asshole. Patriots coming off a win against a garbage team, and the Chargers lost some serious public street cred by losing to Miami which the public doesn't think much of. Public perception is key here imo, really liking the -5.5
I don't think SF is a garbage team. I do think it's going to be tough for NE to play there second west coast game in a row though. SD scares me, I feel like you never know which team is going to show up. Hopefully they pound the Pats.
No more last minute picks from me. Those NYJ and Balt picks were desperation picks to get in on more action even though I fucking said the Colts game was dangerous. Fuck me. And fuck the Jets for not putting up 1 more fucking point. lol
