Have a draft coming up Sunday and want to solicit some opinions on what to with my first pick (second overall). It is a 10 team keeper league (the rules are complicated, but basically you get to keep 3 players every year and you can keep a player up to 3 years…there is also a rookie draft every year for a practice squad on which you can keep up to 4 players indefinitely). My keepers are: Frank Gore Randall Cobb Vernon Davis Shane Vereen (has also been elevated from my practice squad in lieu of a 15th round pick) My practice squad is: Giovanni Bernard Stephen Hill Ryan Tannehill Greg Little Here are the best players available at each of the big 3 positions: QB: Drew Brees Peyton Manning Tom Brady Matt Ryan Colin Kaepernick Russell Wilson RB: Arian Foster Ray Rice Alfred Morris Stephen Jackson Chris Johnson MJ Drew DeMarco Murray Darren McFadden WR: Larry Fitzgerald Roddy White Vincent Jackson Danny Amendola Wes Welker Dwayne Bowe Reggie Wayne Marques Colston The league awards lots of bonus points for hitting yardage milestones. I have picks #2, #15, #18, and #24. I am thinking if Brees is there at #2, I should grab him. He is a safe pick and will give me 3 years of great numbers (assuming no major injury). I also think the chances of any of the top 3 QBs on the board being there at #15 are remote. If Brees is gone, I think I have to take either Rice or Foster and then take the best QB and WR at #15 and #18. Then I just take the BPA at #24. Any thoughts? DBJ
I don't like any of the RBs available. They are all injury prone and IMO not worth 1st round pick. Brees also doesn't make sense to me. If your goal is to win now, Brees is not the best option. I think Manning has higher potential this season. In fact, for win now, I'd get Manning and Welker as my first two picks. These two will likely connect often this season and outside of another head injury, the combo should be durable for 2013. Get both of them and you'll be double-dipping when they hook up. If you want to build for the future, Kaepernik is great choice. He will produce now and you could keep him for the next 3 years. It's more of a long vs short term decision here. Consider that Broncos have the most friendly schedule for passing this year. SF gets SEA twice and this alone deminishes Kaepernik's value. I would get Manning+Welker and hope Payton stays healthy.
You gotta go QB first but I really disagree with above post. I wouldn't take Peyton especially for keeper. Brees or Russell Wilson. Brees had a couple low point weeks last year but with Sean Payton back this year should improve on last years numbers. might seem crazy to pass on brees and manning but I think Wilson is gonna be a FF monster especially when you consider the rushing points he'll get. Good thing is you have Brees, Manning, Wilson, and Kaeps to choose from. I do agree with above not to go RB round one.
Don't get me wrong. I love Peyton (he is my favorite player). However, I just had Manning for the last 3 years (he was my keeper). If I draft him, I can keep him for another 3 years. The problem is, I don't know if I can count on him for another 3 years....sooner or later he is going to get hurt or age will just have its effect. Also, I am not sure why you are down on Brees. He is younger than Manning and has been very solid over the last 3 years: 2012 300yd + games: 9 400yd + games: 2 TDs: 43 2011 300yd + games: 13 400yd + games: 2 TDs: 46 2010 300yd + games: 7 400yd + games: 0 TDs: 33 With that said, I could be OK with taking Manning....especially if Brees is gone.
Will be interesting to see what the guy with pick #1 does. He has Stafford as a keeper, so he could wait to go QB. My team has really struggled the first 3 years in this league (the 2011 Manning injury killed my chances....I had a good team that year....Jamaal Charles also got hurt)....so I really need a can't miss with the first pick. Love Wilson and Kaepernick, but I worry a little about them dipping back down this year.
My problem with Wilson is that Sea defense is very good. At least for some of the games they will keep the opponent's score low and so Wilson won't need to throw a lot. With any team that has good D you'll find yourself pissed off that they are running the ball from mid 3rd quarter to milk the clock. Add to that good RB and your star QB will be loosing some scores.
Just because you can keep Manning for another 3 years doesn't mean you must do it. I'm not down on Brees, but I think that this particular season Manning will post better numbers than Brees. The idea, assuming that I'm right about it, is to "rent" Manning for a year and then not keep him, but get another QB. Remember that there will be several highly lucrative QB prospects coming from college next spring. I'm sure that between Bridgewater and Johnny boy you'll be able to pick a keeper.
On the surface that makes sense but if you look into the stats you'll see it's misguided. Wilson only threw about 24 times per game last year yet after week 6 he was netting over 20 fantasy points per game and over 25 after week 10. It's likely he'll be throwing more than 24 times a game this year. His fantasy points actually increased as Lynch's TD rate rose. And the last 5 games of the season he was scoring more points just from his rushing attempts than most running backs were. apply that logic to other qb's and it seems silly. Would you not pick Aaron Rodgers because the packers have a good defense? course not. The sky is the limit for this dude.
You're taking a long term approach, which of course makes sense in a keeper league. It might be that Manning-Welker combo is my "dream team" for the season and that I put too much faith into it. I know I do it every season with someone. The truth is Kaep and Wilson are both good choices here. IMO Manning will give more points this season, but that's just an opinion.
I think what I am going to do is go with Brees. If he is gone, I will take Manning (can't pull the trigger on Wilson or Kaepernick with the #2 pick)....then look at taking another young QB with one of my two 3rd round picks or 4th round pick (very possible RW or CK will be there). This ensures me a stud QB (essential in this league) and keeps my future prospects open. The alternative (which I don't love) is to take Rice and then take one of the young guns, who should be there with my second round pick.
Got Brees. Number 1 took Foster. This is what I ended up with: QB: Brees, Palmer, Roethlisberger RB: Gore, Vereen, Jones-Drew, McFadden, L. James WR: Cobb, Welker, Gordon, Tate, Heyward-Bey, Holmes TE: Davis, Finley K: Hartley D: 49ers Overall, I am pretty happy. Very happy with Brees. Decent stable of RBs (although no one great). And several WRs with upside. Baring injury, I should be able to compete this season. By the way....Wilson lasted pretty late (#31 overall....4th round). Kaepernick went at #11 (same guy who took Wilson). Manning went #4. Got Welker in round 3. Thanks for the advice guys.
Brees was a good pick. Peyton too old for keeper league. Going RB or WR and then trying to nab Wilson later is big gamble. I went with that strat and got lucky, was able to draft him in the 5th round.
