Is Vrabel being smart here? The Pats will still have plenty of time to kick a field goal, and if they do, it'll be the Titans who wish they had more time.
That's where analytics meets reality of games and momentum, circumstances, etc. Of course you should always go for a 4th and 3 in no man's land like that. But gaining 30 yards of field position against an offense that hasn't scored in the half is super important. Especially with a punter like Kern and a struggling offense. I'm with you in other games, with more quality offensive football though. But I think this time game circumstance trumps analytics.
Agreed I don't think so. Vrabel realllllly just bet on getting a stop on this drive big time. I hope it works out though.
I agree in general, but I don't think it's fair to say circumstance trumps analytics. It's more like circumstance trumps an analytics model that doesn't have enough variables. It's entirely possible some analytics guy working for a team like the Ravens or Eagles has made a model that can account for this situation and may even recommend a punt.
Here we go with playing in off coverage. Brady just keeps finding the man playing against off coverage. Edelman'a dropped more gimme balls like that this year than ever. I wonder if the concussions and injuries are getting to him.
And Vrabel's decision to bet big on his defense just paid off. Now he can burn all of NE's timeouts and put them in a real bind. Or go aggressive and try to win the game outright.
The GOAT coach in this game doesn't use analytics whatsoever. Momentum is a real thing. Teams play so differently game to game and you can't really create models that take into account how schemes can get different players different looks. It's a lot easier and more predictable in a sport like baseball. There's also too much raw human emotion in a sport like this that can affect it.
One of the little things that the Pats did well: not burning any timeouts because they couldn't get set properly on offense or defense. Having all 3 timeouts is valuable in this situation. Edit: The Titans will probably win at this point, but they just did exactly what they shouldn't: burn a timeout because of miscommunication.
Yeah he does, read up on Ernie Adams. He just doesn't like to talk about it (plus I think he disdains the Twitter crowd who act like know-it-alls because they took Stats 101 on Khan Academy). Whether it's possible to make a model for that specific situation, I don't know. It's possible it isn't because of a lack of specific enough data, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely. There are a lot of smart people out there.
