I think we get to 4 wins but I also don’t even care. If we lose out I don’t care. I’d much rather win than lose but that’s never been the point of this season. And yea when you take a 5 win team and make it worse, you probably shouldn’t expect to win 5 games. Problem is people somehow convinced themselves this roster was capable of winning games so like you said, they have to stick to their internet opinions and find irrational ways to make it right.
The funniest part of the 4th down decision is that ESPN’s predictor thing said to go for it. And I promise you at some point the same people who were upset with yesterdays decision shit on Glenn for not following the analytics at some point this season.
It seems that Mougey and Glenn have a good eye for talent, which is huge. They're getting production out of some project players and players they picked up off the trash heap. Not 100%, but much better than the past few regimes.
Your bar is simply too low for this team and for the coaches IMO for us to bear any fruit here. Having the season over in Jan was not in the cards for me with our roster, and I had higher expectations than what we have seen so far. It would also be nice if AG were able to develop a bit of a feel for the game 12 weeks into the season and not make back breaking 4th and 2 calls when it's clear you have to punt. We are not the Detroit Lions who led the League in scoring when he was there, the probability to get these 2-3 yards is much smaller, especially given how the game was going. He needs to do better, and I really hope he will, but the same mistakes continue to happen so far.
Analytics when it comes to our team specifically and how we were moving the ball in this game said to go for it? Or that was for an average offense for an average game? We are not an average offense and as some folks pointed out we have a back-up QB starting after a long time with two new WRs. Was that taken into the consideration of the analytics call above?
Not to mention that is the most scrutinized tool for analytics because there are so many factors it doesn't take into account like the flow if the game, it's basically fantasy football projections, cool to look at but meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
This is why there’s no real convo to be had here. Your expectations aren’t reality. No ones are. But yours went against almost everyone else’s expectations and then you’re going to use them as the baseline. Doesn’t seem like a good basis for discussion.
I realize I am on one extreme end of this issue but I'm not alone and I can atleast recognize the fact that I feel passionately one way and it could effect my judgement so as much as I want to argue (much like politics) I try to let the situation unravel an sort itself out. Some of these guys on the other end of the spectrum just don't want to see any arguments that don't fit their narrative and then there's the Jack Bower guy that just has a weird hate thing for me lol. The talent isn't as good this year because this is who they went into the year with, it all falls back on the coach. Glenn will either succeed or fail, I truly hope I'm wrong and he is the next coming I just don't see it. As far as Burrow I have some uncomfortable news for some people that don't want to spend picks, we are going to spend atleast 2 first round picks this year to get a QB one way or another, just hate to spend it on a lottery ticket instead of a sure thing.
JD and Bob did that too with guys like JFM, Huff, etc... Mostly on defensive side. This regime seems to have found some good players for offense, like Taylor and Metchie. Maybe even AD. They need to use that skill to get the QB. This is easier said than done though. I heard the guy who is Atlanta now was the biggest voice in getting Mahomes for KC. He then wanted Penix the same way, and Penix does not look great so far.
that's not how analytics works lol if you want him to factor in personnel, momentum, weather, whatever. then you are asking him to think outside the analytics models
It's interesting that when you are already brainwashed, you don't actually know that you are. It seems real to you, and anything that contradicts that is therefore not real. The win line for the Jets right before the season started was 6.5 games: https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2025-new-york-jets-win-total-over-under-odds AG was really the biggest unknown. If he were a good coach, it's completely reasonable to expect to get 7 wins. The win line was set higher than 5 wins we had last year, even with the rookie coach. So, IF we have a good coach, expecting 7 wins or more is completely reasonable. It was not reasonable to expect the season to be effectively over in September and then keep praising coaching staff. THAT is against almost everyone else's expectation, and that is the reality you found yourself in, even though you may not know it.
the vegas lines are set where they are to encourage betting. They are not an indication of how good a team is or isn't.
Now days you can configure a lot more factors, and definitely for your team or the situation. The ones you see on TV are for general public, it is not what the teams have access to. They build their own models specific to their teams. Detroit being very aggressive made a lot of sense: they lead the league in scoring. Almost all their games are high scoring, they move the ball with ease. Every team has a different situation, it's not the same model for the 27th ranked team on offense vs 1st, and individual team models do factor that in. At least for the smart teams.
It was not as bad as I thought it was going to be but I feel like that was mostly down to Jackson looking out of sorts and not being as mobile as he normally is - still it was a competitive game for a long time if not a particularly enjoyable one.
do you have any proof to these claims? it would strike me as odd for detroit to stack data models because they think they are good. And I know it is incorrect to say it impacts a game decision in the moment, NFL coaches are not allowed to consult software tools once the game is kicked off. I think its more likely they prepare all week, thinking about various situations, and Detroit is very aggressive because Campbell simply values keeping the football more than field position. It is risk management and you take a risk both going for it and kicking back to your opponent.
You can dig a lot deeper in AI mode, but start from here: https://www.google.com/search?q=do+nfl+analytics+models+include+specific+of+your+team
At the end of the day and considering the bolded part below, this is all I want to know coming out of 2025, do we have in place the offensive system and coaches that will remain with whomever they draft in 2026? We KNOW for a fact that we are going to burn MAJOR draft capital on a QB. As @NOVAJET explained, it will either be on a rookie or a known quantity. Now, I want nothing to do with Joe Burrow. Sorry for those on that fence. Has that guy ever played a full season? Feels like he hasn't. He also wouldn't be coming to a team with the receiving talent the Bengals have. That leaves, in my mind anyway, a rookie QB. And, as I stated at the beginning, the ONLY question I want answered is: Will this rookie QB have the SAME O.C. for the ENTIRETY of his rookie contract or will the Jets fuck that up and have 3 different offensive systems run by this kid by the time he's 4 or 5 years in the league? THAT is the answer I MUST HAVE answered by the end of 2025. It's going to do no one any good if they blow through massive draft capital only to screw the kid right out the gate. This is now going to be my new talking point the remainder of the season and, hopefully, we get the answer before the 2026 draft. Glenn is what he is and I have a feeling he's going nowhere. Tanner Engstrand, on the other hand, IS the wild card, at least, for the moment.
Refs really hosed us in this game too. It was actually a pretty decent defensive performance. Still no TOs of course, but so far the defense did not get any worse without Sauce and Q. Surprisingly maybe even got better somehow... https://x.com/Joerb31/status/1992943282339319982
