Blue Jays @ Yankees, 9/21 - 9/24

Actually it's about 17%. Still not happening though.

 

you're using ELO.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php has Yankees winning the division at 9.5577%.

PECOTA has them at 6.3%.

 

I like ELO better because it uses strength of schedule and such. But I do like the numbers you posted better as a fan.

 

Pretty much a guarantee at this point.