Nugent was a solid kicker for us, he just ran into some bad luck last season and feely played well, so we had to cut nugent.
Remember his draft day quote, something to the effect that he was the "Iceman," "Cold as ice" and had "ice running through" his veins...
It's obviously the exception because there aren't many can't-miss kickers but how people constantly undervalue the position when so many games and seasons come down to a kick is beyond me. You want to go through this science to build a great team and then trust the whole season to a guy you signed off the street. I mean it works out that way a lot of the time, but I certainly see the wisdom in taking a kicker high if you think he's going to be solid and get the job done for you.
I don't think people undervalue the importance of a kicker at all, but that has nothing to do with where a kicker should be drafted. People make a big deal about how half of the QBs drafted in the first round end up not being starters in the league, but that's still much higher than the proportion of QBs who are drafted in the 5th round who do. That's why it makes sense to draft a QB early - the potential rewards in doing so make it worth the risk. That's just not the case for kickers - from what I've seen, there is no relationship to draft position and success for a kicker (indeed, many successful kickers aren't drafted at all, and do just walk in off the street). That tells you that it is very inefficient to draft a kicker early, since the chances that you'll gain very much by doing so are much lower than if you draft someone at another position at that slot and worry about the kicker later. Ultimately, I partially agree with your last sentence, but I think you've put the emphasis in the wrong place. Since the chances of gaining much by drafting a kicker early are so low, you had better be close to 100% sure that you're getting a great kicker if you're doing it (thinking someone is going to be solid isn't good enough). This is one of those cases where hindsight is perfectly reasonable, since it better be overwhelmingly obvious that the kicker is off the charts in ability. It was obvious that wasn't the case with Nugent the first time he took the field, and that's why drafting him was a terrible decision.
In the end, of course in hindsight, the proof of this is that Robbie Gould came out in the same draft year and played in the same conference as Nugent. Went undrafted, was signed, and then cut by New England and Baltimore before Chicago pulled him off a construction job. At the time we drafted Nugent, if I remember right, you could count on one hand the number of kickers picked in the first three rounds. Janikowski, Kaeding, Brien (oh the irony), and a couple others. The two probowl kickers from the year before - Vinatieri and Akers - were both undrafted. Every bit of kicking history told us it was INSANE to draft a kicker at 47 (our first pick). And still we did. Irks me to this day, because it was the most knee-jerk (emphasis on "jerk") draft pick in history. This may just close the book on my rants for Draft '05. I don't feel any better, though. EDIT: And just to add to the rich irony, whodaya think Gould replaced in Chicago? Hint - it rhymes with "smug lion."
That's correct. It was his rookie year (1994), and not only did he lead the league in extra points, he had the 7th most in NFL history (being on a team with Steve Young, Jerry Rice, and Ricky Watters will do that for you). He was let go the following season after only 6 games.
i agree with this, anyone care to remember Cary Blanchard? but on the other hand, if you take a kicker in the 2nd round, he better turn out to be borderline hall of fame otherwise he is a bust because great kicking can and usually is found much later on. they rolled the dice on nugent and came up snake eyes. shit happens.
Agreed, but wasn't Nugent widely considered the best kicker coming out of college that year? Wasn't he as close to a 100% sure thing as a kicker ever was? Sure it was obvious that wasn't the case after he took the field for us, but I don't believe that was obvious leading up to the draft. I agree with the statistical assessment that drafting a kicker at all is just dumb, but Nugent WAS supposed to be one of those lights-out exceptions to the rule. Alas, he just ended up proving the rule.
That's what I'm saying. I'm defending the idea of doing it if you think you have the right guy, not Nugent himself. Given how our season ended that January, now it's April and you think you have that guy to eliminate the kicking issue for the next ten years, I can see it. That was my point about Janikowski, nobody notices it because the Raiders haven't played an important game in years, but he was there when they were in the Super Bowl too. Has a big leg and can be counted on, that's what you want, that's not a small thing, again it decides games. In Nugent's case it didn't work out that way, like you said it happens. A lot of second round picks turn out to be a waste, that one happened to be a kicker.
I'm not a big college football fan, so I don't know exactly what the perception was coming out of college. I just know that from the moment he took the field it was obvious that he just wasn't that good. We never heard a word to suggest that he got injured after the draft, so how is that possible? I just compare it to Janikowski - the moment he took the field you knew that he had an amazing leg. Nugent did win the Lou Groza Award as best kicker in the NCAA the year he graduated, but check out the list of Groza winners: 1992 Joe Allison Memphis 1993 Judd Davis Florida 1994 Steve McLaughlin Arizona 1995 Michael Reeder TCU 1996 Marc Primanti North Carolina State 1997 Mart?n Gram?tica Kansas State 1998 Sebastian Janikowski Florida State 1999 Sebastian Janikowski Florida State 2000 Jonathan Ruffin Cincinnati 2001 Seth Marler Tulane 2002 Nate Kaeding Iowa 2003 Jonathan Nichols Ole Miss 2004 Mike Nugent Ohio State 2005 Alexis Serna Oregon State 2006 Art Carmody Louisville 2007 Thomas Weber Arizona State 2008 Graham Gano Florida State McLaughlin, Gram?tica, and Kaeding were drafted in the third round, Nugent in the second, and Janikowski in the first. Gram?tica and Kaeding have been okay, and maybe worth their draft position. Janikowski has the amazing leg, although is perhaps not quite as accurate as they hoped he'd be, and might or might not have been worth the pick. Nugent - no way. Certainly, there's nothing here to suggest that the best kicker in college football is at all likely to be any good in the NFL. I believe that Nugent was the last Groza winner to even be drafted. Interesting coincidence, no?
My argument back in the day was that the margin between good and great kickers in the NFL is so thin that taking ANY kicker on the first day of the draft is a bad business move. Valuewise. The Patriots picked their kicker Gostkowski in the fifth round. That seems to be pretty decent value. All-Pro and ProBowl last year, but the question is, knowing what we now know, would he have been decent value in a higher round? If so, how high? I'd say third round MAYBE. But, what if you could sign a kicker like Feely off the street. He seems fairly reliable, but for some reason can't stick with one team? I don't think ANY kicker rises to the level of first round value. Janikowski was the most highly regarded kicker I can ever remember, and I still think it was nuts. He's been good, but I don't think he's ever been to a Probowl. The answer might be that NFL teams just do CRAZY things with the kicker position. Feely's a pretty good example. Vinatieri another one. You'd think the Patriots would have given him, if any kicker, a contract offer to keep him around. I'd love to see the draft rankings for kickers over the last several years. I know that Nugent was ranked higher than anyone, but if guys like Akers, Gould, or Vinatieri can be left undrafted, it means the entire player evaluation system at that position is flawed. On the other hand, it SEEMS like it should be a real easy thing to evaluate. You set a ball down and see how straight and far he can consistently kick it. The first sign with Nugent was his kickoffs. Always short. That just seems to me an incredibly easy thing to test before drafting a kid. There's really no way to explain it.
