Let's be honest, he got lucky on that one. Would have made it a two possession game if he missed, and frankly both 2pt conversions were on broken plays and very lucky. But, better lucky then good, we deserved a little luck for once. We can say he made a great call and also that Woody was a great motivator for Fields. When you win, all is good.
I'm glad we won the game, especially because of Mangold's passing, but also because I was starting to worry that we were going to go 0-17 and Glenn would be fired without ever winning a game. That said, I think he's a bad coach and we should fire him the instant the season is over.
There's a "down 8" theory that the calculator nerds push on Twitter. Glenn played the numbers. I sure didn't love it but 1. it worked and 2. I don't hate following analytics although I prefer more of a 50/50 split between numbers and common sense. Also to Glenn's credit, you can tell this locker room really does love him. He hasn't even come close to losing them.
I dont think "luck" is the right word there. at the end of the day it is a 2-yard play. Part of the decision behind going for it is that it's often something you can pick up off schedule. If it was a 30-yard play and Fields scrambled in for it, then yeah, they got lucky. But from the 2-yard line you are considering that it has a 50+ish% chance of conversion, and part of that is because you can run or throw it in. the real decision is related to risk management, how bad does it hurt if we dont get it. In Detroit they value the rewards more than they are worried about the spoils. That's where Glenn comes from
I liked the decision on the 2nd attempt down 8 a lot in the moment. I was surprised and concerned about the first decision, down 9, to go for it
The analytics don't work if you do this though because they rely on accruing a big enough sample size over the course of the season for the averages to work out in your favor. Glenn has shown he doesn't really understand this. It's one of my main gripes with him - he seems to wing decisions when the smart teams (like the Lions) do what the analytics say to do almost every time. One example is how we went for it on 4th and 1 from our own territory and then kicked a field goal on 4th and 1 in Bengals territory. There's no world in which that makes sense analytically.
He came from the organization that popularized going for it on 4th down a lot more often. It's honestly shocking that he doesn't have this stuff down pat already.
I don't find it that shocking. He's a first year head coach and with his previous team he was the DC. I don't think he was doing much deliberating on headset about going for it on fourth. These are things people learn with experience, I'm not all that worried about it.
I agree. indecision is worse than making the decision. Last year we had a veteran coach and a veteran, 41-year-old QB, and yet when forced with a fourth down decision they would waste the play clock all the way down and burn a timeout or take a delay of game penalty. Glenn is signaling what he wants to do, right or wrong, right away. I respect it.
