Big difference. 1-15 would be a coinflip with Miami and probably another 1-15 team for the 1st overall pick and a guaranteed top 3 pick. Personally, I'd much prefer 9-7 and the 17 pick.
9-7 is not going to be wildcard this season I think. Tennessee and Jacksonville are both 5-2 and in 2nd and 3rd place in the AFC South respectively. Even if you think one of them might collapse, and odds are that is a likely occurrence, then you have to have San Diego not win 10 games, and that is an unlikely occurrence.